Mortgage and refinancing rates today
Average mortgage interest rates fell yesterday. This marked his third straight trading day of decline. Unfortunately, they are still higher than they were a week ago.
Early this morning the market suggested that Mortgage rates could rise moderately todayBut that could change over time.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||mortgage interest rate||April*||Change|
|Conventional 30-year fixed||7.191%||7.221%||-0.24%|
|Conventional 15-year fixed||6.586%||6.621%||-0.04%|
|Conventional 20-year fixed||7.479%||7.523%||+0.12%|
|Conventional 10-year fixed||6.601%||6.68%||-0.02%|
|30-year fixed FHA||6.974%||7.765%||+0.07%|
|15 year fixed FHA||6.689%||7.233%||-0.1%|
|30 year fixed VA||6.736%||6.972%||-0.28%|
|15 year fixed VA||6.617%||6.981%||+0.01%|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may vary. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Don’t set a date when mortgage interest rates are likely to fallMy recommendations (below) are intended to make long-term suggestions for the overall direction of these rates. As such, it does not change daily, reflecting fleeting sentiment in volatile markets.
Mortgage interest rates always go up and down over time. However, we do not expect the significant decline to continue until 2023.
So my personal recommendations for long term rate locking are:
- Lock when approaching 7 day to day
- Lock when approaching 15 day to day
- Lock when approaching 30 day to day
- Lock when approaching 45 day to day
- Lock when approaching 60 day to day
Market Data Impacting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of how things were playing this morning around 9:50am ET. Here’s the data compared to about the same time yesterday:
- of 10 year government bond yield It is stable at 4.16%. (Neutral on mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these specific government bond yields.
- Selection subject Stock index Prices drop after opening. (May benefit mortgage interest rates.) When investors buy stocks, they are often selling bonds. The opposite can happen if the index is low.But this is an imperfect relationship
- oil price It fell from $91.51 to $87.58 a barrel. (Favorable mortgage interest rates*.) Energy prices play an important role in generating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
- Money price It rose from $1,679 to $1,717 per ounce. (Favorable mortgage interest rates*.) In general, interest rates rise when gold rises and worsen when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — Dropped from 62 out of 100 to 57 out of 100. (Favorable mortgage interest rates.) “greedy” investors While pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into equities, “afraid” investors do the opposite.Therefore a low measurement is better than a high one
*Movements of less than $20 for gold or less than 40 cents for oil are 1% or less. Therefore, we count only meaningful differences between good and bad mortgage rates.
Notes on Markets and Rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, we could have looked at the numbers above and made a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. it’s not. We still call every day. And usually correct. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.
Therefore, use the market only as a rough guide. Because to depend on them you have to be either very strong or weak. However, with that caveat, Mortgage rates likely to rise todayNote, however, that “day swing” (when the rate changes speed or direction during the day) is now a common feature.
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
There are a few things you should know.
- Mortgage rates typically go up when the economy is good and go down when the economy is bad. But there are exceptions. read ‘How mortgage interest rates are determined and why you should care‘
- The advertised ultra-low interest rate mortgages are only available to “top-notch” borrowers (excellent credit scores, large down payments, and very sound financial standing).
- Lenders vary.As for daily rate movements, yours may or may not follow the crowd – but they all usually follow broader trends over time.
- If the daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust the closing costs and keep the rate card the same.
- The refinancing rate is usually close to the purchase rate.
A lot is happening right now. And no one can say for sure what the mortgage rates will be in the next few hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
How much difference will yesterday’s midterm elections make to mortgage rates? With the results rolling in overnight, they suggested the polls may have been wrong again.
At the time this was written, it still seemed possible that the Democrats would lose the House. Of course, nothing is certain yet.
From Wall Street’s perspective, a Republican victory in either House would be enough to trigger a stalemate. Such deadlocks are fine because they dampen the government’s ability to act in unpredictable ways.
On Monday, I referenced a report on CNN Business’s Ameriprise Chief Market Strategist Anthony Saglimbene’s recent comments. After studying historical data, he concluded that stock markets typically go up after every election, regardless of which party wins or loses, and who is in the White House.
Of course, what’s good for the stock market may not be good for the bond market. In fact, the opposite is also true. Also, mortgage interest rates are primarily influenced by the bond market.
Most importantly, past performance is not always a good guide for what will happen next. And later today, and after that, as a potential long tail of recounts and outflows unfolds, we’ll see what conclusions markets ultimately come to, including those that largely determine mortgage rates. understand.
tomorrow’s inflation report
Thursday’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be a much bigger deal for mortgage rates than the medium term. But again, we won’t be able to confirm that until the numbers in the report go live tomorrow at 8:30 am.
Analysts and economists polled by market watch We project October numbers as follows (September numbers in brackets):
- YoY CPI — 7.9% (8.2%)
- Monthly Change in Consumer Price Index — 0.6% (0.4%)
- Core CPI y/y (‘core’ excludes food and energy prices) — 6.5% (6.6%)
- Monthly Change in Core CPI — 0.5% (0.6%)
If tomorrow’s actual numbers are closer to those projections, mortgage rates may react little. But if they are higher, those rates could rise. And if they’re fairly low, it could lower your mortgage interest rates.
read weekend edition For more information on the factors currently driving mortgage rates, visit
The lowest weekly mortgage rate ever was set on January 7, 2021, at 2.65% for a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac’s archives.
freddy’s November 3rd The report showed the same weekly average of 6.95% (0.8 for fees and points). under Up from 7.08% the previous week. This does not include his November 2nd rise.
Note that Freddy expects you to buy discount points (“With 0.8 commission and points”) will give you a lower rate. Otherwise, your rates will be closer to those quoted by us and others. Belatedly, Freddie says he plans to stop including discount points in his forecasts later this year.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictor
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have teams of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .
Also, rate forecasts for this quarter (Q4 2022) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1 2023, Q2 2023, Q3 2024) are:
The numbers in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fanny’s predictions showed up on October 10th, MBA’s predictions on his October 23rd, and Freddy’s predictions on his October 21st.
Of course, given the sheer number of unknowns, the whole current forecast can be even more speculative than usual. And their past accuracy records haven’t been all that impressive.
Find Today’s Lowest Rate
Regardless of the type of mortgage, you need to weigh broadly. As a federal regulator, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau say:
“Considering a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but Saving just a quarter of a percentage point off your mortgage interest can save you thousands of dollars for the life of the loan. ”
Mortgage Interest Rate Methodology
Mortgage Reports receive rates based on: Selected criteria From multiple lending partners every day. We arrive at the average interest rate and APR for each loan type that we want to show in the graph. It averages a series of rates, so you have a better idea of what you will find in the market. In addition, it calculates the average interest rate for loans of the same type. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a great snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the policies or positions of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.