Mortgage and Refinancing Rates, November 3 | Rates Still Rising Today

Mortgage and refinancing rates today

Average mortgage interest rates rose yesterday. It’s still well below its peak in October, but much higher than it was a week or a month ago.

This morning the market suggested Mortgage rates could rise today, probably quite. But that could change later in the day.

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program mortgage interest rate April* Change
Conventional 30-year fixed 7.506% 7.534% +0.05%
Conventional 15-year fixed 6.652% 6.677% +0.04%
Conventional 20-year fixed 7.446% 7.495% +0.14%
Conventional 10-year fixed 6.625% 6.704% +0.03%
30-year fixed FHA 7.118% 7.913% +0.15%
15 year fixed FHA 6.787% 7.385% +0.16%
30 year fixed VA 6.717% 6.952% -0.02%
15 year fixed VA 6.62% 6.984% +0.01%
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may vary. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See rate assumptions here.

Should you lock your mortgage rate today?

Don’t set a date when mortgage interest rates are likely to fallMy recommendations (below) are intended to make long-term suggestions for the overall direction of these rates. As such, it does not change daily, reflecting fleeting sentiment in volatile markets.

After yesterday’s Federal Reserve activity, there seems little prospect of continued declines in mortgage rates in the coming months.

So my personal recommendations for long term rate locking are:

  • Lock when approaching 7 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 15 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 30 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 45 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 60 day to day

> Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinancing rates

Market Data Impacting Mortgage Rates Today

Here’s a snapshot of how things were playing this morning around 9:50am ET. Here’s the data compared to about the same time yesterday:

  • of 10 year government bond yield jumped from 4.05% to 4.18%. (Mortgage interest rates are very low.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these specific government bond yields.
  • Selection subject Stock index Prices drop after opening. (May benefit mortgage interest rates.) When investors buy stocks, they are often selling bonds. The opposite can happen if the index is low.But this is an imperfect relationship
  • oil price It rose from $88.14 to $88.17 a barrel. (Neutral on mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play an important role in generating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
  • Money price It fell from $1,658 to $1,624 per ounce.Favorable mortgage interest rates*.) In general, interest rates rise when gold rises and worsen when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.And worried investors tend to cut interest rates
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — Down from 55 to 54 out of 100 inches. (bad mortgage interest rates.) “greedy” investors While pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into equities, “afraid” investors do the opposite.Therefore a low measurement is better than a high one

*Movements of less than $20 for gold or less than 40 cents for oil are 1% or less. Therefore, we count only meaningful differences between good and bad mortgage rates.

Notes on Markets and Rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, we could have looked at the numbers above and made a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. it’s not. We still call every day. And usually correct. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.

Therefore, use the market only as a rough guide. Because to depend on them you have to be either very strong or weak. However, with that caveat, Mortgage rates likely to rise todayNote, however, that “day swing” (when the rate changes speed or direction during the day) is now a common feature.

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

There are a few things you should know.

  1. Mortgage rates typically go up when the economy is good and go down when the economy is bad. But there are exceptions. read ‘How mortgage interest rates are determined and why you should care
  2. The advertised ultra-low interest rate mortgages are only available to “top-notch” borrowers (excellent credit scores, large down payments, and very sound financial standing).
  3. Lenders vary.As for daily rate movements, yours may or may not follow the crowd – but they all usually follow broader trends over time.
  4. If the daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust the closing costs and keep the rate card the same.
  5. The refinancing rate is usually close to the purchase rate.

A lot is happening right now. And no one can say for sure what the mortgage rates will be in the next few hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

After the Federal Reserve’s report and press conference yesterday afternoon, the situation could have gotten even worse.in him Opening remarks at that press conferenceFed Chairman Jerome Powell threw a bone into the market:

As we have said in our last two press conferences, at some point it will be appropriate to slow the pace of increase as we approach interest rate levels that are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to the 2% target.

The Fed said its interest rate setting committee will discuss the timing of that slowdown at its meeting next month. These signals were enough to temporarily lower mortgage rates. However, it did not last long as other messages permeated it.

“It’s too early to think about a moratorium,” Powell said.When new york times (Paywall) reports: They also expect to keep them high for some time to come. ”

The impact of this on mortgage rates

The market really didn’t want to hear that last bit. And by the end of the day, mortgage rates were pretty high.

That was when we called yesterday’s rise “rapid” or “significant.” But the extreme volatility in mortgage rates this year has devalued those adjectives. In fact, there are 30 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of 1%) up and down in one day. Meanwhile, the Mortgage News Daily archives showed an increase of 11 basis points yesterday.

Sadly, yesterday’s events reinforce my longstanding view that a significant and sustained decline in mortgage rates is unlikely for several months. I wish I had better news.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates could be impacted by more important individual economic reports. It starts tomorrow with the September Jobs Situation Report. Also next week will be followed by the same month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

read weekend edition For more information on the factors currently driving mortgage rates, visit

The lowest weekly mortgage rate ever was set on January 7, 2021, at 2.65% for a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac’s archives.

freddy’s November 3rd The report showed the same weekly average of 6.95% (0.8 for fees and points). under Up from 7.08% the previous week. However, this does not include his November 2 ascent.

Note that Freddy expects you to buy discount points (“With 0.8 commission and points”) will give you a lower rate. Otherwise, your rates will be closer to those quoted by us and others. Belatedly, Freddie says he plans to stop including discount points in his forecasts later this year.

Expert Mortgage Rate Predictor

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have teams of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

Also, rate forecasts for this quarter (Q4 2022) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1 2023, Q2 2023, Q3 2024) are:

The numbers in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fanny’s predictions showed up on October 10th, MBA’s predictions on his October 23rd, and Freddy’s predictions on his October 21st.

forecaster Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2 2023 Q3/23
fannie mae 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4%
freddie mac 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4%
MBAs 6.7% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5%

Of course, given the sheer number of unknowns, the whole current forecast can be even more speculative than usual. And their past accuracy records haven’t been all that impressive.

Find Today’s Lowest Rate

Regardless of the type of mortgage, you need to weigh broadly. As a federal regulator, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau say:

“Considering a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but Saving just a quarter of a percentage point off your mortgage interest can save you thousands of dollars for the life of the loan. ”

Mortgage Interest Rate Methodology

Mortgage Reports receive rates based on: Selected criteria From multiple lending partners every day. We arrive at the average interest rate and APR for each loan type that we want to show in the graph. It averages a series of rates so you have a better idea of ​​what you will find in the market. In addition, it calculates the average interest rate for loans of the same type. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a great snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

Information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the policies or positions of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.

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