Mortgage and refinancing rates today
Average mortgage rates moved little last Friday. However, they went up quite a bit during the week.
By 9:45 a.m. ET, Mortgage rates today may be stable or near-stableBut they are already quite high and low this morning. As such, markets are volatile and unpredictable.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||mortgage interest rate||April*||Change|
|Conventional 30-year fixed||7.409%||7.44%||No change|
|Conventional 15-year fixed||6.63%||6.66%||No change|
|Conventional 20-year fixed||7.356%||7.409%||No change|
|Conventional 10-year fixed||6.618%||6.697%||No change|
|30-year fixed FHA||7.001%||7.709%||No change|
|15 year fixed FHA||6.714%||7.286%||No change|
|30 year fixed VA||6.888%||7.127%||No change|
|15 year fixed VA||6.606%||6.97%||No change|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may vary. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Don’t set a date when mortgage interest rates are likely to fallMy recommendations (below) are intended to make long-term suggestions for the overall direction of these rates. As such, it does not change daily, reflecting fleeting sentiment in volatile markets.
For me, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which mortgage rates would fall significantly over the long term. Much easier.
So my personal recommendations for long term rate locking are:
- Lock when approaching 7 day to day
- Lock when approaching 15 day to day
- Lock when approaching 30 day to day
- Lock when approaching 45 day to day
- Lock when approaching 60 day to day
Market Data Impacting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of how things were playing this morning around 9:50am ET. Here’s the data compared to last Friday at about the same time:
- of 10 year government bond yield increased from 4.17% to 4.19%. (bad mortgage interest rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these specific government bond yields.
- Selection subject Stock index Immediately after the store opens, the price goes up. (Mortgage interest rates can be bad.) When investors buy stocks, they are often selling bonds. The opposite can happen if the index is low.But this is an imperfect relationship
- oil price It rose from $92.03 to $92.57 a barrel. (bad mortgage interest rates*.) Energy prices play an important role in generating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
- Money price It rose from $1,666 to $1,683 per ounce. (Neutral on mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates rise when gold rises and worsen when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — increased from 59 out of 100 to 61 out of 100. (bad mortgage interest rates.) “greedy” investors While pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into equities, “afraid” investors do the opposite.Therefore a low measurement is better than a high one
*Movements of less than $20 for gold or less than 40 cents for oil are 1% or less. Therefore, we count only meaningful differences between good and bad mortgage rates.
Notes on Markets and Rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, we could have looked at the numbers above and made a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. it’s not. We still call every day. And usually correct. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.
Therefore, use the market only as a rough guide. Because to depend on them you have to be either very strong or weak. However, with that caveat, Mortgage rates today are likely to stay the same or barely changeNote, however, that “day swing” (when the rate changes speed or direction during the day) is now a common feature.
Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates
There are a few things you should know.
- Mortgage rates typically go up when the economy is good and go down when the economy is bad. But there are exceptions. read ‘How mortgage interest rates are determined and why you should care‘
- The advertised ultra-low interest rate mortgages are only available to “top-notch” borrowers (excellent credit scores, large down payments, and very sound financial standing).
- Lenders vary.As for daily rate movements, yours may or may not follow the crowd – but they all usually follow broader trends over time.
- If the daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust the closing costs and keep the rate card the same.
- The refinancing rate is usually close to the purchase rate.
A lot is happening right now. And no one can say for sure what the mortgage rates will be in the next few hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Two things are most likely to affect mortgage rates in this short week (Friday is a holiday).
The first is tomorrow’s midterm elections, or rather, the timing of the counting and announcement of votes. Elections almost always elicit reactions in the market.
Many in the stock market want one or both houses of Congress to fall Republican. Because it creates a government impasse. And while it could thwart tax increases, reforms and new regulations, it could undermine efforts to strengthen social safety nets in the event of a recession.
That said, CNN Business quoted Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene over the weekend. “Even though stocks have historically risen after elections,” he said.
We’ll have to wait and see until the election results come out, but keep that in mind. What’s good for the stock market is bad for the bond market. Also, mortgage interest rates are largely determined by one of these bond markets.
Another potentially significant event for mortgage rates occurs on Thursday. Then there’s the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Bond markets hate inflation at their best. But that’s especially true now that the Federal Reserve’s plans for future rate hikes are heavily dependent on consumer prices.
The market expects these prices to rise 7.9% in the year to October, according to economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is down from his 8.2% for the 12 months to September.
Mortgage rates could rise if Thursday finds prices higher than expected. However, these rates could fall if inflation falls further than projected.
read weekend edition For more information on the factors currently driving mortgage rates, visit
The lowest weekly mortgage rate ever was set on January 7, 2021, at 2.65% for a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac’s archives.
freddy’s November 3rd The report showed the same weekly average of 6.95% (0.8 for fees and points). under Up from 7.08% the previous week. This does not include his November 2nd rise.
Note that Freddy expects you to buy discount points (“With 0.8 commission and points”) will give you a lower rate. Otherwise, your rates will be closer to those quoted by us and others. Belatedly, Freddie says he plans to stop including discount points in his forecasts later this year.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictor
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have teams of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .
Also, rate forecasts for this quarter (Q4 2022) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1 2023, Q2 2023, Q3 2024) are:
The numbers in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fanny’s predictions showed up on October 10th, MBA’s predictions on his October 23rd, and Freddy’s predictions on his October 21st.
Of course, given the sheer number of unknowns, the whole current forecast can be even more speculative than usual. And past accuracy records have been less impressive. Personally, I think they are too optimistic.
Find Today’s Lowest Rate
Regardless of the type of mortgage, you need to weigh broadly. As a federal regulator, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau say:
“Considering a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but Saving just a quarter of a percentage point off your mortgage interest can save you thousands of dollars for the life of the loan. ”
Mortgage Interest Rate Methodology
Mortgage Reports receive rates based on: Selected criteria From multiple lending partners every day. We arrive at the average interest rate and APR for each loan type that we want to show in the graph. It averages a series of rates so you have a better idea of what you will find in the market. In addition, it calculates the average interest rate for loans of the same type. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a great snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the policies or positions of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.