Mortgage and Refinancing Rates, Nov 15 | Rate Drops Today

Mortgage and refinancing rates today

Average interest rates on mortgages surged yesterday. But it barely made a dent in last Thursday’s stunning fall.

as if Mortgage rates today may fallBut that could change by tonight, as we’ve seen so often lately.

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

program mortgage interest rate April* Change
Conventional 30-year fixed 7.107% 7.144% +0.19%
Conventional 15-year fixed 6.023% 6.055% -0.26%
Conventional 20-year fixed 7.027% 7.074% +0.25%
Conventional 10-year fixed 6.632% 6.736% +0.04%
30-year fixed FHA 6.484% 7.265% -0.24%
15 year fixed FHA 6.19% 6.72% -0.09%
30 year fixed VA 6.409% 6.641% -0.02%
15 year fixed VA 6.471% 6.832% +0.24%
Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may vary. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See rate assumptions here.

Should you lock your mortgage rate today?

Don’t set a date when mortgage interest rates are likely to fallMy recommendations (below) are intended to make long-term suggestions for the overall direction of these rates. As such, it does not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiment in volatile markets.

Obviously, you never know what mortgage rates will be next. However, I worry that last Thursday’s dramatic decline will be temporary. And it’s still questionable whether we’ll see a sustained and worthwhile decline for months.

So my personal recommendations for long term rate locking are:

  • Lock when approaching 7 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 15 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 30 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 45 day to day
  • Lock when approaching 60 day to day

> Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinancing rates

Market Data Impacting Mortgage Rates Today

Here’s a snapshot of how things were playing this morning around 9:50am ET. Here’s the data compared to about the same time yesterday:

  • of 10 year government bond yield It dropped from 3.87% to 3.82%. (Favorable mortgage interest rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these specific government bond yields.
  • Selection subject Stock index It has been on an upward trend since opening. (Mortgage interest rates can be bad.) When investors buy stocks, they are often selling bonds. The opposite can happen if the index is low.But this is an imperfect relationship
  • oil price It fell from $87.69 to $84.55 a barrel. (Favorable mortgage interest rates*.) Energy prices play an important role in generating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
  • Money price It rose from $1,771 to $1,775 per ounce. (Neutral on mortgage rates*.) In general, interest rates rise when gold rises and worsen when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
  • CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — increased from 65 to 70 out of 100 points. (bad mortgage interest rates.) “greedy” investors While pushing bond prices down (and raising interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into equities, “afraid” investors do the opposite.Therefore a low measurement is better than a high one

*Movements of less than $20 for gold or less than 40 cents for oil are 1% or less. Therefore, we count only meaningful differences between good and bad mortgage rates.

Notes on Markets and Rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, we could have looked at the numbers above and made a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. it’s not. We still call every day. And usually correct. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous highs until things calm down.

Therefore, use the market only as a rough guide. Because to depend on them you have to be either very strong or weak. However, with that caveat, Mortgage rates likely to fall todayNote, however, that “day swing” (when the rate changes speed or direction during the day) is now a common feature.

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

There are a few things you should know.

  1. Mortgage rates typically go up when the economy is good and go down when the economy is bad. But there are exceptions. read ‘How mortgage interest rates are determined and why you should care
  2. The advertised ultra-low interest rate mortgages are only available to “top-notch” borrowers (excellent credit scores, large down payments, and very sound financial standing).
  3. Lenders vary.As for daily rate movements, yours may or may not follow the crowd – but they all usually follow broader trends over time.
  4. If the daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust the closing costs and keep the rate card the same.
  5. The refinancing rate is usually close to the purchase rate.

A lot is happening right now. And no one can say for sure what the mortgage rates will be in the next few hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

Mortgage rates would have risen yesterday had lenders not put down a safety cushion last Thursday. That’s the conclusion of Mortgage News Daily’s analysis.

These rates often move in opposite directions immediately following exceptional declines and rises. But I fear the market is misinterpreting last Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Too many investors seemed to believe that the Fed’s rate hike policy would be the catalyst for a rapid turnaround. But that seems very optimistic to me, and to many others.

Admittedly, there is no unanimity at the Fed. Vice-Chairman Lael Brainerd said yesterday that “probably soon it will be appropriate to move to a slower pace of increase”. But that’s a lot different than a quick turnaround.

When wall street journal Also yesterday, Brainard said he had suggested a 50 basis point (0.5%) rate hike next month. But that’s what everyone expected for a while. Still, those remarks may be enough to explain the drop in mortgage rates this morning.

If my analysis is correct, last Thursday’s unusual drop in mortgage rates could be temporary. But am I right?read on and decide for yourself weekend edition of this report.

tomorrow

Tomorrow we bring you the most important economic report of the week. It will be sold in stores in October.

As usual, a higher than expected number (1.2% remains the latest estimate market watch) are likely to push up mortgage rates, while low interest rates are likely to push them down.

That report hints at how the economy is holding up amid current troubles, so it could easily impact mortgage rates. Very unlikely to have any impact. It was a move he made once in a decade, or even rarer.

This week’s inflation report includes today’s producer price index and tomorrow’s import price index. These measure prices earlier in the supply he chain than on retailer shelves. It is therefore useful for gauging future inflation. So they may have some impact on mortgage rates, but probably small.

The lowest weekly mortgage rate ever was set on January 7, 2021, at 2.65% for a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac’s archives.

freddy’s November 10th The same weekly average was 7.08% (0.9 for fees and points), according to the report. Up Up from 6.95% the previous week.

Note that Freddy expects you to buy discount points (“0.9 with commission and points”) will give you a lower rate. Otherwise, your rates will be closer to those quoted by us and others.

Belatedly, Freddie says he plans to stop including discount points in his forecasts after November 17th. He also changes the time at which the weekly report is produced. And from that day on, this section will be updated every Friday.

Expert Mortgage Rate Predictor

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have teams of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

Also, rate forecasts for this quarter (Q4 2022) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1 2023, Q2 2023, Q3 2024) are:

The numbers in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Fanny’s predictions showed up on October 10th, MBA’s predictions on his October 23rd, and Freddy’s predictions on his October 21st.

forecaster Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2 2023 Q3/23
fannie mae 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4%
freddie mac 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4%
MBAs 6.7% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5%

Of course, given the sheer number of unknowns, the whole current forecast can be even more speculative than usual. And their past accuracy records haven’t been all that impressive.

Find Today’s Lowest Rate

Regardless of the type of mortgage, you need to weigh broadly. As a federal regulator, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau say:

“Considering a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but Saving just a quarter of a percentage point off your mortgage interest can save you thousands of dollars for the life of the loan. ”

Mortgage Interest Rate Methodology

Mortgage Reports receive rates based on: Selected criteria From multiple lending partners every day. We arrive at the average interest rate and APR for each loan type that we want to show in the graph. It averages a series of rates, so you have a better idea of ​​what you will find in the market. In addition, it calculates the average interest rate for loans of the same type. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a great snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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