By how much do you expect U.S. home prices to fall next year due to slowing demand and higher mortgage rates?

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — U.S. real estate prices are starting to fall as housing demand plummets amid soaring mortgage rates, an economist recently said. Also, prices could continue to fall by up to 20% as the market normalizes.

“[W]We expect home sales to continue to decline through early next year,” said Ian Shepardson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. CBS news“By that point, sales will have fallen to incompressible minimum levels, and only those who have no choice but to move due to work or family circumstances will move.”

According to CBS, cooling in residential real estate is already evident in a range of cities, including: Austin, Texas. Phoenix, Arizona; Salt Lake City, Utah and Denver, Colorado. Home prices in these areas, once skyrocketing, are now returning to more affordable levels.

But here in Staten Island, the numbers have yet to reveal such a trend.

The Staten Island Association of Realtors (SIBOR) said in its October newsletter, “Prices continue to gain momentum.” [in this borough] $675,000, up 5.5%. House prices continue to rise as housing supplies are limited, but price growth is slowing rapidly. “

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the price decline to be modest, with a price decline of between 5% and 10% next year.

“While house price declines may appear large, these declines are expected to only partially offset the rise in house prices that has occurred since February 2020,” said the World Financial Institute. said. investigation report“But there is reason to think the decline could be substantial. Housing markets have already fallen 7% in just six months in Canada and Sweden, and 11% in New Zealand in eight months. increase.”

Here in the United States, home sales are 4.7 million Mortgage rates more than doubled in September, down 1.5% from August, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). CBS reported that average interest rates on a typical 30-year mortgage rose from his 3.2% in January to nearly 7% recently.

“Rising interest rates and rising home prices have pushed the cost of housing out of reach for many potential buyers,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. Growth should continue to slow sharply and will contract significantly next year.”

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